The Lobos (5-3) return to action at WisePies Arena AKA The PIT to face Pepperdine University Waves (4-6). Because they had the week off for Finals Week, the Lobos haven’t played since their two-game Texas road trip. The Lobos are coming off a great road win against a solid SMU team while the Waves, after starting the year 2-6, are on a two-game winning streak. Look for the Lobos to make Pepperdine work hard on both sides of the court to take advantage of the elevation. It is important for the Lobos that Khadijah Shumpert stays out of foul trouble, especially after seeing her pick up her 4th foul in the first minute of the third quarter in the last game. While the Lobos can find production from other post players, it is always a benefit to have your best player on the court for a large majority of the game.
I think a big factor in this game will be the difference between the teams’ supporting casts, as a key to the Lobos winning this game will be their deeper bench. While it is a deeper bench, the Lobos do need to find more consistent production from the guards off the bench. Coach Sanchez did make a move for this by having Jannon Otto come off the bench in the SMU game for the first time this season, with Leneah Bryan getting the start. I think this could be a good move because Otto could bring a very potent perimeter scoring threat off the bench to pair with Jaisa Nunn. Coach Sanchez will have to find out if the dual point guard lineup is the way to go for large parts of games. It will be important for Bryan and Bryce Owens to be efficient in the shots they take and be playmakers for the other three players on the floor. I do think that they should be able to work well together to do this and that this dual point guard lineup can be a great thing for the Lobos.
Pepperdine:
The Waves are led by third year Head Coach Ryan Weisenberg and are members of the West Coast Conference, which includes schools like Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s. The Waves are coming off an 8-22 season and are 4-6 so far this season. The Waves are led by freshman star Erica Ogwumike who is averaging 16.9 points and 7.9 rebounds per game. If the last name sounds familiar, it’s because she is the younger sister of former Stanford Cardinal star players, and WNBA number 1 picks, Nneka and Chiney. The Waves do also have their other sister in sophomore Olivia Ogwumike, who is averaging 8.2 points and 3.8 rebounds per game. The Waves rely on Erica Ogwumike a lot, since she is their best player, but they do get good production from Allie Green who is averaging 11 points and 2.8 rebounds per game.
As a team, the Waves are averaging 62.8 points per game while allowing 71.3 points per game. The Waves are also averaging 18.8 turnovers per game, while only assisting 11.2 per game. Two bright spots for the Waves as a team are how well they have shot the ball from the three-point line (36.3%) and how well they have shot from the free throw line (73%). If the Lobos want to have a great game Saturday afternoon, they need to control the three-point line and not let it get like the UTEP game, where the Miners went 12-24 from three. The Lobos will also need to keep the Waves off the foul line, because the Waves will take advantage.
Matchup to Watch:
There is no question what the matchup to watch is in this game. Erika Ogwumike and Cherise Beynon are both very important to their team and their play dictates how their teams play in a given game. For the Lobos to be successful in this game, Beynon needs to have a very nice game on defense and limit what Erika Ogwumike can do. I don’t know if you can shut down Erika Ogwumike completely, so you have to try to make her less efficient. If Beynon can limit her to less than 18 points, I really like the Lobos chances to win this game.
Prediction:
This game will be very interesting to see how it plays out. Pepperdine may have the best player in the game, but the Lobos have better depth and possibly the next four best players in the game. I really like the Lobos chance of winning this game on Saturday and put the odds of them winning at 80%. I think the way Pepperdine could win is if Erika Ogwumike has a great game and ends up with 30 or more points. The final score I have for the game is 77-65, Lobos.
Game Info:
Who: New Mexico (5-3) VS. Pepperdine (4-6)
Where: WisePies Arena AKA The PIT, Albuquerque NM
When: Saturday December 12, 2 PM MT
Radio: 610 AM
Stream: Mountain West Network