The Lobos (9-7, 2-3) return to action after their second and last bye of the Mountain West schedule to take on the San Jose State Spartans (6-12, 4-3). This is a very important home game for the Lobos, as they have struggled offensively since the Minnesota game over a month ago and could use a good performance on that end of the court to build up some confidence and momentum. Hopefully the Lobos were able to make adjustments during the week and will be able to get their offensive attack back on track. SJSU could be just the team the Lobos need to get this done, as the Spartans are giving up almost 80 point per game. A key to the offense will getting Jaisa Nunn back to where she was before the concussion, when she was the Lobos third-leading scorer behind Khadijah Shumpert and Cherise Beynon. The Lobos also need to get production from the second wing position as well as the bench, which they certainly have the potential to do. If the Lobos are able to answer these questions, there is still time for the Lobos to make noise in the Mountain West.
In their last six games, the Lobos have only scored over 56 points twice and one of the games was a double-overtime game against FSU. The Lobos’ defense still has been good for most of the season, but the long droughts on the offensive end have led to big defeats. Hope is not lost for the Lobos, as they still have talent to be a top tier team in the league, but you have to be able to score to win college basketball games. When the Lobos are playing well, they have great ball movement and don’t take contested shots. I wouldn’t mind seeing Coach Sanchez going back to the two-point guard lineup and see if that could restart the Lobos offense.
SJSU Spartans
The Spartans, led by third-year head coach Jamie Craighead, are coming off a 15-17 season, in which they finished Mountain West play at 7-11. Last season, they lost the lone meeting with Lobos, dropping a 64-62 contest at the Event Center. Coach Craighead was the head coach of early-season foe Sacramento State for few years where she implemented the fast pace style that both teams utilize. When playing a Coach Craighead-influenced team, it is very important to play your game and to not get caught up in a three-point-shooting contest. In the game against Sacramento State this season, the Lobos did a great job of doing just that and ended up winning the game pretty comfortably.
On the court, the Spartans are led by the transfer from Weber State, Dezz Ramos. The junior point guard is the key to the Spartans attack, as she is leading them in scoring, at 19.4 points per game, and assists, with 4 a game. Ramos has been very productive from the three-point line, shooting from there regularly and making 41.9% (44-105), so the Lobos need to limit her good looks from three and make her shoot contested two-point shots. It is important for the Lobos that Bryce Owens has a very productive game, most importantly on the defensive side of the ball.
After Ramos, the Spartans have six other players that are playing over 15 minutes per game and balance is the key to the Spartans attack after Ramos, as playing the up-tempo style leads to many different player taking shots. The frontcourt players that I will be watching are Riana Byrd and Jasmine Smith. Byrd, a senior post player, does not start for the Spartans, but she has been very productive in her 17.6 minutes per game by averaging 9.4 points, 7 rebounds, a block, and a steal per game. Smith, a junior post, has started every game for the Spartans and plays 18.8 minutes per game. Smith has also been very productive, averaging 9.6 points and 6.3 rebounds per game. Smith (48.1%) and Byrd (47.7%) are shooting well from the field, which allows them to be productive on the offensive side in their limited minutes. The Lobo frontcourt players need to be very productive in this game and limit the good looks these two Spartans get.
Team Stat Comparison
- Points Per Game: Lobos 63.8; Spartans 75.1
- Points Allowed Per Game: Lobos 60.4; Spartans 77.9
- Field Goal Percentage: Lobos 38%; Spartans 39.7%
- Three Point Percentage: Lobos 28.6%; Spartans 32.1%
- Free Throw Percentage: Lobos 64.2%; Spartans 68.6%
- Defensive Field Goal Percentage: Lobos 37%; Spartans 42.1%
- Defensive Three Point Percentage: Lobos 31.3%; Spartans 33.9%
- Rebounds Per Game: Lobos 40.6; Spartans 40.3
- Assists Per Game: Lobos 13.8; Spartans 14.6
- Turnovers Per Game: Lobos 15.5; Spartans 16.7
- Turnovers Forced Per Game: Lobos 17.3; Spartans 17.4
As we can tell by the team stats, the Lobos are the better defensive team while the Spartans have the better offense. That means that this game is strength on strength, but I actually think that the game will be decided by the weaknesses. If the Lobos can score, they will probably win the game handily. But, if the Spartans can shut the Lobos down, they’ll likely run away with this one.
Matchup to Watch
The matchup that I will be watching in the game is the battle between the point guards, Bryce Owens and Dezz Ramos. Ramos is SJSU’s best player and Owens will be responsible in slowing her down, trying to make other Trojan players beat the Lobos. The two keys for Owens in this game are to play great defense and take care of the ball. The Spartans want to turn you over to get into their fast break offense, so they will try to speed to you up and try to force you into bad situation. If Owens, Bryan, and Beynon are able to keep control of the pace of play, I really like the Lobos’ chance of winning the game.
Picks
After a great Wednesday night going 4-1 on my picks, I am now 22-12 in MW Picks this season. Here are my picks for Saturday’s action.
- UNM vs SJSU
- USU vs SDSU
- BSU vs WYO
- FSU vs AFA
- UNLV vs Nevada
I’m taking all of the home teams today, but we could still see three great games with the UNM/SJSU, USU/SDSU and BSU/WYO matchups.
Conference Standings
- CSU 6-0
- FSU 6-0
- BSU 4-2
- SJSU 4-3
- UNLV 3-3
- WYO 3-4
- USU 3-4
- UNM 2-3
- Nevada 2-4
- SDSU 1-5
- AFA 1-5
Prediction
This game will come down to which team is able to control the pace of play. If SJSU is able to speed the Lobos struggling offense up, it could turn out to be a long day for the Lobos. While that is a possibility, I think the Lobos will be able to take care of the ball and take good shots to get the offense back on track. I believe that the Lobos will be able to take care of business and come away with a very important home win. I put the odds of the Lobos winning this game at 63%, with the final score being 67-62. I am predicting a huge Khadijah Shumpert game and wouldn’t be surprised if she finished with 20 points, 10 rebounds sort of game.
Game Info
Who: New Mexico (9-7, 2-3) vs. SJSU (6-12, 4-3)
Where: WisePies AKA The PIT, Albuquerque, New Mexico
When: Saturday January 23, 2 PM MT
Radio: 610 AM
Stream: Campus Insiders