It’s time once again for the Lobos to head down south to take on the NMSU Aggies – as they have for 122 years – for another installment of the Rio Grande Rivalry. Admittedly, this rivalry has lost a little of its luster the past several years, as the Lobos have had to recover from one of the worst stretches in their program’s history while the Aggie program is just trying to stay afloat. However, these games tend to be close – or at least entertaining – as all good rivalry games should be.

A Little about New Mexico State

As much worry and hand-wringing there sometime is about the Lobo football program these days, that’s nothing compared to what’s going on in Las Cruces. For example, in the last 40 years, the Aggies have had a winning record four times, not having accomplished that feat since 2002. Partially because of that, they haven’t appeared in a bowl game since 1960, which is the longest drought of any FBS team. That drought is expected to continue this year. Things have gotten so bad that they’re actually going to be kicked out of their conference in the near future, likely leaving them with the option of either being independent again, which hasn’t really worked well for them, drop down to the FCS level, or scrap the program entirely. It seems unlikely that they’ll get rid of the program, so the best option might legitimately be to drop down to the FCS level. It’s unlikely that any of the other FBS conferences will take them in, and without that support, it seems likely that their issues will only get worse.

The man tasked with the herculean task of reviving this program is Doug Martin, who is in his fourth year as the head coach of the Aggies. With the Aggies loss this past weekend, his record with them is now 7-30. He returns senior quarterback Tyler Rogers, who has basically had the starting job since he stepped foot on campus a couple of years ago, as long as he’s been healthy. For his career, Rogers has been more of a prototypical passing quarterback than he is a threat to run, as he has averaged only 3.1 yards per carry in his career. He did rush for 63 yards on 7 carries against UTEP, so he is capable of picking up yards on the ground if he gets the chance. He has generally been a somewhat accurate passer as an Aggie, with a 58.3% completion rate, but he was definitely off his game this past weekend, only completing 17 of his 41 attempts.

In the backfield, the Aggies usually have Larry Rose III, who completely tore the Lobos up last season, but he’s still out after a surgery in the offseason and isn’t expected to play in this game. Instead, we’ll likely see a healthy dose of Jason Huntley, a small, freshman running back. At 5’9”, 165 lbs., Huntley relies more on his speed than his strength, so not letting him get into the open field will be a priority for the Lobo defense. As for the wide receivers, Rogers’ favorite targets seem to be the 6’6” Jaleel Scott and the 5’7” OJ Clark. Clark isn’t listed on the depth chart for this game, but I haven’t seen anything that makes me think he won’t play. With Rose being out, I’d expect the Aggies to throw a lot again, especially if the Lobos jump out in front. The secondary could have a lot of opportunities to make plays.

The Aggie defense is also missing a key piece, with last year’s leading tackler, linebacker Derek Ibekwe, expected to be out with an injury as well. That leaves safety Jacob Nwangwa and linebacker Terrill Hanks as the top returners on that side of the ball, both of whom had good games against UTEP by collecting 14 and 11 tackles, respectively. Junior safety Jaden Wright and senior linebacker Rodney Butler are the captains and leaders of the defense and both had productive games against UTEP, with Butler picking up 15 tackles and Wright defending 2 passes.

Some Relevant Stats

• The Aggies gave up almost 300 yards on the ground to UTEP, including allowing UTEP’s Aaron Jones to go for 249 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Aggies had one of the worst defenses in the FBS last season, and that first game didn’t make it seem like much has changed.
• The Aggies passed 41 times compared to their 30 run attempts. That might be because they don’t have Larry Rose III, but I think that it’s most likely due to the fact that they were down by multiple touchdowns for most of the game. I would expect a more balanced attack from them in this game, unless they find themselves in a similar position against the Lobos.
• Since 2003, the Lobos have only lost 3 times to the Aggies. I bet you can guess who the coach was for those games.

Scattered Thoughts

• Coach Davie is still playing a little coy about the quarterback situation, saying in his press conference this week that he still plans to use a combination of Austin Apodaca and Lamar Jordan depending on what the opponents do on defense and what the flow of the game calls for. If that’s the case, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jordan a decent amount in this game, as the Aggies appear to be very vulnerable on the ground and with Jordan in there, the Lobos are deadly rushing the ball. That said, I’d still prefer Apodaca to keep the job until he plays himself out of the role. Not only do I think he provides the best combination of skills at that position, having just one guy taking the snaps leads to better consistency in the offense, as the balls that are thrown are the same, the timings are the same, and the handoffs are the same. I don’t think that’s a trivial thing. Of course, if Apodaca comes out and has another solid game from the beginning, this might not be a question going forward.
• Around the Mountain West, most of the teams played cupcakes, just like the Lobos did, so there easy wins for the conference. One of those cupcake games turned out to be much more interesting than expected, as Nevada had to go to overtime to beat Cal Poly, which isn’t a great sign for the Wolfpack. As for the teams that played FBS opponents, Colorado State, Fresno State, and San Jose State got blown out by Colorado, Nebraska, and Tulsa, respectively. That’s still better than Hawai’i, who traveled to Australia to get beat by Cal, then traveled to Ann Arbor to get demolished by Michigan. They get to stay home this week to play an FCS school, so hopefully that helps them get over the jet lag. The best win for the conference actually came from Wyoming, who managed to beat a solid Northern Illinois team in a wild triple overtime game that ended past 2am.
  This week, the conference as a whole has some tough games on the schedule, with Wyoming heading to Nebraska, Utah State going to USC, Nevada visiting Notre Dame, UNLV traveling to UCLA, and San Diego State hosting Cal. If the conference can pull out a few wins from this group, it would help the perception of the Mountain West as a whole. Of course, aside from SDSU, who are favored against Cal, most of these games see the MWC team as heavy underdogs. But, stranger things have happened, right?

Prediction

It’s a little hard writing about this game, as it feels like I keep piling on NMSU. But, the bottom line is, they’re not a good team and the program really is in trouble. Because of that, the Lobos absolutely should win this game, and realistically should win it handily. It might be a rivalry game, but I think that the Lobos not only have enough experience to handle the pressure, they match up pretty well against the Aggies as well. So, I’ll take the Lobos to win 38-21.

Game Info

Who: New Mexico Lobos (1-0) at New Mexico State Aggies (0-1)

When: Saturday, September 10, 2016 at 6pm MT

Where: Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM

Watch: AggieVision (and supposedly Fox Sports Arizona)/ESPN3

Listen: 770 KKOB