Lobo Baseball Series 3 Preview: Air Force

by Zach

The Lobos (4-3), start off their Mountain West schedule this weekend, as they travel to Colorado Springs to take on the Air Force Falcons (4-3). Coming into this series, the Lobos have lost 3 of their last 4 games, but don’t let that scare you off from this team. Last weekend, the Lobos played a tight series against a very talented Dallas Baptist team, where the Lobos lost the deciding game 7-6 in 11 innings. In that game, the Lobos came back from down 4-1 in the 9th to send the game to extra innings, then took a 6-4 lead in the top of the 11th before a three-run homer won the game for DBU. In their midweek game against nationally-ranked Texas Tech, the Lobos had one bad inning and lost the game 7-2. While the final score looks like a blow out, the Lobos had plenty of chances, including a bases load opportunity in the 8th down 5-2.

Air Force Falcons:

After many years of being the bottom team of the conference, even forcing the conference to say they couldn’t play NAIA schools after losing to my Alma Mater York College in 2007, things have improved for the Falcons in recent years. Last season, they had one of the best pitchers in conference history in Griffin Jax, who was drafted by the Minnesota Twins this past year. Last season, the Falcons moved up to 5th place in the conference and should be able to stay out of last place again this season. The Falcons lead the MW Preseason All-Conference Team with 4 players selected, with all 4 players being hitters.

Key Players:

  • Tyler Jones OF: Jones is a returning First-Team All-Conference selection, and is off to a solid start this year, hitting .300/.417/.750 with 6 runs, 6 RBI and 3 home runs. The Lobo pitching staff must limit the damage Jones has on this series, but it could be difficult avoiding him with the talent that surrounds him in the lineup.
  • Bradley Haslam 3B/DH: Also a returning First-Team All-Conference selection, Haslam has left his signature on the baseball early this season, hitting .276/.323/.655 with 7 runs, 6 RBI, 2 doubles and 3 home runs.
  • Nic Ready DH/3B: Ready was a Co-Freshman of the Year last season and also a second-team all-MW selection. He was clearly ready for the start of the season and is off to a solid start, hitting .290/.313/.581 with 6 runs, 3 RBI and 2 home runs.
  • Adam Groesbeck OF: The last of the 4 Preseason All-Conference selection, Groesbeck is off to a slow start this year, but the Lobos need to make sure that he doesn’t start hitting this series. So far this season, he is hitting .136/.259/.182 with 3 runs and an RBI.
  • Tyler Zabojnik: Zabojnik is another guy who is off to a fantastic start to the season, hitting .480/.563/.800 with 5 runs, 5 RBI, a double and 2 home runs.
  • The Falcons do have some talented pitchers, but the two pitchers that I will be watching to see how they attack the Lobos are Matt Hargreaves (1-0, 2.77 ERA) and Tyler Mortenson (1-0, 0.00 ERA). Since Mortenson is their key relief pitcher and Hargreaves is their Sunday Starter, the Lobos should be able to put up plenty of runs in first two games.

Preseason Picks:

We will look at the Preseason Polls selected by the MW, D1 Baseball, and Lobo Lane Preseason Poll.

MW D1 Baseball Lobo Lane
UNM UNM UNM
FSU FSU FSU
Nevada Nevada Nevada
SDSU SDSU SDSU
AFA UNLV UNLV
UNLV AFA AFA
SJSU SJSU SJSU

There is little to no variance in the Preseason Picks, as there is a clear-cut top two with UNM and FSU and a case to be made that Nevada is right below them. To me, the only debate was UNLV or AFA at 5.

Preseason MW Award Picks:

I won’t do an All-Conference Team, but I will do all the major awards.

Coach of the Year: Ray Birmingham UNM: I will go with the coach of the team that I think will win the conference. Birmingham is a great coach and should always be up for this award.

Freshman of the Year: Beau Capanna 2B UNM: I think that Capanna will be the everyday 2B for the Lobos come season end and will have huge part in what the Lobos do this season.

Pitcher of the Year: Ricky Tyler Thomas FSU: The top pitching prospect in the conference will be a high draft pick come June and will give MW hitters fits for the next few months.

Player of the Year: Luis Gonzalez UNM: I think the two best hitters in the conference reside in Albuquerque in Carl Stajduhar and Luis Gonzalez, and due to his great defense and all-around game, I think Gonzalez is going to win the award this year.

Player of the Week:

The games considered for this week are the 3 games against Dallas Baptist. (Remember, 3 points for first, 2 points for second, 1 point for third. The number is parenthesis is the season total for each player)

Hitters:

  1. Luis Gonzalez (3): was 8 for 11 (13 for 16 on base) 3 runs, 2 RBI, a double, a home run, 5 walks and 2 stolen. For his efforts, he was the MW Player of the Week.
  2. Andre Vigil (2): was 3 for 11 with 4 runs, 2 RBI, a home run, a walk and HBP.
  3. Beau Capanna (1): 3 for 9 with 3 walks, 3 runs and a RBI.

Pitchers:

  1. Austin Isenhart (3): went 1 2/3 innings of perfect ball with 2 strikeouts. Isenhart has a chance to claim a huge role for the pitching staff as the season goes along.
  2. Johnathon Tripp (5): J Tripp went 6 innings in his first start of the year, and pitched well, giving up 6 hits, 3 runs and 2 walks while striking out 6.
  3. Carson Schneider (3): was Carson Schneider in his start this weekend, getting the win to improve to 2-0 on the season. Schneider went 6 innings, allowing 8 hits, 2 runs, with 2 walks, a hit batter, and 3 strikeouts.

Probable Starting Pitchers:

Friday: RHP Tyler Stevens (0-1, 8.10 ERA) vs. RHP Evan Floyd (0-1 7.71 ERA)

Saturday: LHP Carson Schneider (2-0, 1.64 ERA) vs. RHP Nick Biancalana (0-1, 11.57 ERA)

Sunday: Johnathon Tripp (1-0, 2.70 ERA) vs. RHP Matt Hargreaves (1-0, 2.77 ERA)

Series Predictions:

Series in Colorado Springs are always interesting, but it has been a long time since Air Force won a series against the Lobos there (2002), and it is hard to see this Lobo team lose a series against a team with so many question marks on the mound. I expect a huge weekend for the Lobo offense and we could see well over 30 runs in the three-game series. I set the odds of a Lobo sweep at 25%, Lobos winning 2 of 3 at 45%, Lobos losing 2 of 3 at 20%, and the Lobos getting swept at 10%. I think that we’ll see the Lobos get the sweep. It should be a good weekend for the Lobos on the road and we will have you covered this weekend on Twitter.

Series Info:

Who: New Mexico Lobos (4-3, 0-0) at Air Force Academy Falcons (4-3, 0-0)

When: Friday, Saturday and Sunday, March 3-5. First Pitch 2 PM, 1 PM, and 1 PM

Where: Falcon Field USAFA, Colorado Springs, Colorado

Stream: Mountain West Network

Radio: 101.7 The TEAM