After shaking off the rust against ACU, the Lobos now turn their attention to their in-state rivals. The Aggies are in town tonight for the 108th matchup between these two schools and, regardless of the relative quality between these two teams, it’s always seems to be an entertaining game. The Lobos are hoping that a big crowd shows up to watch the action and to cheer them on as try beat the Aggies for a 71st time. Never gets old.
Also, I’ve left the Google form to get people’s predictions for the season open for an extra week, as I think it’s fair to call the ACU game a freebie. But, I’m going to close it when this game starts. At this point, only a handful of people have filled it, which is a bummer, as the more predictions we get, the more fun it will be. I’ll keep track of the game predictions as the season goes on and keep everyone updated on who among us is best at predicting the future. So if you have a few minutes, check it out: https://goo.gl/forms/WKf892C7YTy5fwE92
A Little About NMSU
What They’ve Done So Far: The Aggies went to Tempe last week to take on Arizona State for their season opener. They put up a valiant effort against the Pac-12 Sun Devils, keeping the score at the half 14-13 before the Sun Devils took control with a 23-0 run. The Aggies answered with an 18-0 run of their own, but ran out of time before they could complete the comeback, ultimately losing 37-31. They did come away with plenty of positives, but their highlight had to be this amazing catch.
Coach: Doug Martin is now in his 5th season as the head coach of the Aggies, where he’s gone 10-39. He’s still trying to dig the program out of the hole that they’ve been in for the past 15 years or so, but the odds are definitely stacked against him. Given his background as an offensive coordinator, it’s no surprise that his teams have been better on offense than defense, and that’s likely to be true again this season. He’s returning an experienced team, so this might be the year where he’s expected to show something.
The Offense: The Aggies are led on offense by a couple of seniors, QB Tyler Rogers and RB Larry Rose III. Rogers is a four-year starter who by the end of the season will likely be number two on both the Aggies’ all-time passing yards and passing touchdown lists, behind Chase Holbrook. He is capable of running the Aggie offense well, although he is a little prone to turnovers.
Rose is a talented running back who is completely capable of busting out a 260 yard, three touchdown performance, like he did against the Lobos in 2015. However, he’s also capable of only gaining 31 yards on 15 carries like he did last year against the Lobos. Scarily enough, the 260-yard game is more indicative of the 31-yard performance, so the Lobos will need to work hard to keep him in check.
The Aggies air it out about as often as they run it, so you’ll also be seeing a lot of the receiving corp. Senior Jaleel Scott, the guy who made the amazing catch linked earlier, is a 6’6” receiver who looks to be the primary target this year. He had a huge first game this season, catching 8 passes for 149 yards and 2 touchdowns. Sophomore OJ Clark was the primary slot receiver last year and looks to be a big part of the offense again this season.
The Defense: The defense struggled last season, giving up 38.8 points per game. They do return 9 of the starters, so it should be a more seasoned crew this year, which also means that the defense will probably be better this year.
The star on defense is senior safety Jaden Wright, who picked off five passes, forced three fumbles, and recorded 80 tackles last season. Senior LB Dalton Harrington, junior LB Terrill Hanks, and senior safety Jacob Nwangwa were also top performers for the Aggies last season and will be needed to solidify the defense this year.
Ratings Comparison: According to Football Outsiders’ F/+ metric, the Aggies are currently the 124th best team in the FBS (out of 128). For comparison, the Lobos are currently sitting at 108. I’m pretty sure that both teams will be higher than that by the time the season’s over. Regardless, here’s where those rankings fit across the FBS:
Scattered Thoughts
So what did we learn about the Lobos last weekend against ACU? Well, on offense, we learned that the passing game looks like it has taken a major step forward, as Lamar Jordan was 11-17 for 213 yards, a touchdown, and no interceptions. If the defense has to respect his arm, that can only mean good things for the Lobo offense.
We also saw a shaky start from the defense, where they allowed ACU to march 99 yards for a touchdown on the opening drive, but a pretty solid outing once they got settled in. The run defense in particular was effective, as they only allowed the Wildcats to gain 72 yards on the ground. Thanks to some sacks and a bad snap, the net total ended up at 8 yards on the ground, which feels a little ridiculous.
Of course, it’s hard to take away too much from a win against an FCS team. Tonight’s game will be a better measuring stick for the Lobos’ offense and defense, especially the defense. If they do a good job shutting the Aggies down, that would be a great sign for the rest of the season.
Prediction
The Aggies look like they’re going to be frisky this season and these games always end up more wild than they should be. Plus, both teams look like they’re going to be better on offense than defense, so I’m guessing that the two teams combine for something like 90 points and 1000 yards. I’ll take the Lobos to win 45-41.
Game Info
Who: New Mexico Lobos (1-0) vs. New Mexico State University (0-1)
When: Saturday, September 9, 2017 at 6pm MT
Where: Dreamstyle Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
Watch: Facebook! This game’s on Facebook.
Listen: 770 KKOB