After another underwhelming performance, losing 24-10 to Utah State, Lobo Football has now lost four in a row and has their bowl chances hanging by a thread. Unfortunately, next on the docket is Texas A&M, where the Lobos will face a hostile crowd on the Aggies’ senior night. It’s certainly not impossible, but the Lobos will need a great performance to keep their postseason hopes alive.

A Little About Texas A&M

The Season So Far: The third and final set of Aggies that the Lobos face this season have had an up and down season. They started off by blowing a huge lead at UCLA, which is especially unfortunate as the Bruins have proven to be a middle-of-the-road Pac 12 team this year. They followed that up by winning four straight games, including their first two conference games. However, they’ve only won one of their past four games, which is maybe understandable when their opponents have been Alabama, Florida, Mississippi State, and Auburn. Yikes. Anyway, that has left them with a 5-4 record, meaning that they need to pick up one win in their last three to ensure bowl eligibility. Given that their final two games are on the road against Ole Miss and LSU, they are probably planning on just getting that win taken care of today.

The Coach: Kevin Sumlin, who came to Texas A&M after a successful stint at the University of Houston. He’s in his sixth season with A&M, with his best coming in his first year on the job. That season, he rode Johnny Manziel to a remarkable 11-2 record, finishing with a win in the Cotton Bowl and a #5 national rank. Since then, things have been a little rougher, as he’s now coming off three straight seasons with an 8-5 record. On one hand, that sounds pretty impressive given that the Aggies play in the SEC. On the other hand, expectations are crazy-high in College Station, so fans are starting to get a little restless, evidenced by the several articles about his job security that pop up when you Google his name right now. I think that it’s safe to say that a loss to UNM wouldn’t help that situation.

Key Players: Nick Starkel has been announced as the starter for this game, making this the first time he started a game since he broke his ankle in the season opener. He’s primarily a passer and, in his limited action, has performed pretty well. His absence is one of the reasons that the Aggies’ season hasn’t gone to plan, so they’re hoping his return can get things back on track.

The Aggies main offense has been the rushing duo of Trayveon Williams and Keith Ford. Williams is more of the speedster while Ford is known as a physical rusher, but expect to see a healthy dose of each of them. As far as receivers go, Christian Kirk leads the team in receptions and touchdowns while Damion Ratley has been the deep threat, averaging 22.9 yards per reception.

On defense, linebacker Tyrel Dodson is having a great season, with 82 tackles, 4.5 sacks, and 3 interceptions. Right behind him is DB Armani Watts, who has 71 tackles, 4 interceptions, and 2 forced fumbles. Also of note is DE Landis Durham, who has 7.5 sacks already this season.

Advanced Stat Comparison

As you’d probably expect, Texas A&M rates better than UNM, but in all honesty, this is not a great Aggie team. They’re currently sitting at 69th in Football Outsider’s F/+ rankings, which actually makes them a little below average. Unfortunately, the Lobos have been trending down the past few week and find themselves at 105th in those same rankings.

If we look at just S&P+ ratings, we see that metric actually likes the Aggies even less, making the difference between the two teams less noticeable. The Aggies are a little below average on offense (although that’s been without their starting quarterback), but the Lobos have been pretty bad, mostly thanks to their terrible passing numbers and their nearly three turnovers a game. On defense, interestingly enough, S&P+ actually likes the Lobos a little better, which is a sentence I didn’t think I’d be writing in this preview. Both teams have a good special teams unit, with the Aggies currently rated in the top-10.

What is Left to Play For?

The season feels a little lost at this point, but I do think that there are a few things worth playing for down the stretch:

• Bowl eligibility. After all, it’s not completely ruled out yet, so there’s not point in them giving up hope.
• Developing the youth. There is a solid young core on this team, so some level of allowing them to gain experience and to see what we have in them is certainly worthwhile down the stretch. I like a lot of the talent on the defensive end and between Tevaka Tuioti, Jay Griffin, and Q’ Drennan, it is possible to see a future Lobo offense that has a dangerous passing attack.
• Ruining San Diego State’s day. There’s a half-decent chance that SDSU will need to beat the Lobos in the final game of the season to play in the conference championship. It would be fun to see the Lobos make sure that doesn’t happen.
• Finishing strong. Right now, I think that there are a lot of questions about the future of the program. If nothing else, I have a lot of questions about the future of the program. With the team not just stuck in a big losing streak but looking hopeless at times during it, it’s no surprise that some people might want to see a change. Now, I think that’s unlikely to happen, as for one, one bad season probably isn’t enough to run a coach out of town and for two, UNM can’t really afford to pay another big buyout right now. But, if the Lobos end up going 0-3 or 1-2 over these last few games, it’s going to be hard to get excited for next season. However, if they manage to beat UNLV at home and then steal a game either at A&M or SDSU, the offseason will have a different feel to it.

Prediction

What is a little unfortunate is that this actually seems like a decent year for the Lobos to go in and beat the Aggies. And, if they were playing up to what I still think their potential is, they might have a shot. However, three of the past four weeks have been downright ugly losses, which has made it difficult to be particularly optimistic about this game. There are absolutely scenarios in which I could see the Lobos winning, particularly if they can both protect the ball and prevent the Aggies from getting in sync on offense. It feels pretty unlikely, though, so I’ll pick the Aggies to win 31-17.

Game Info

Who: New Mexico Lobos (3-6, 1-5 MW) at Texas A&M Aggies (5-4, 3-3 SEC)

Where: Kyle Field, College Station, TX

When: Saturday, November 11, 5:00 PM MT

Watch: ESPNU

Listen: 770 KKOB