After dropping another home game to North Texas, the Lobos fell to 5-5 on the season and left plenty of questions and observations from my seat. This is the first of Zach’s Reacts, in which I will give his immediate post-game thoughts. Each paragraph will be a different topic and I hope that the order works.
Author: Zach
Let’s Get WeirD: Schedule, Bold Predictions, and MW Picks
A new season brings new hopes, dreams, and expectations for Lobo Men’s Basketball Fans. This post mostly focuses on the first two. We’ll take a quick look at the non-conference schedule, make some bold predictions, and fill out our preseason MW ballots. Let’s do this.
Men’s Basketball Season Preview: 2018-2019
The time has finally come for year two of the Coach Paul Weir Era! After a promising first season, with the Lobo faithful buying into the Weir’s vision for the program, there is plenty of reason to be excited to the season to begin. There are a lot of interesting stories to watch as the season unfolds, as it promises to be a memorable one. Today, we look at some of the possible stories to watch, what we will have our eyes on, an overview of the roster, and how the Lobos could stand in the Mountain West and in the NCAA.
UNM at CSU Postgame Thoughts
There is a lot to be said about what took place in Fort Collins in the matchup between UNM and CSU. As a quick summary, The Lobos fought hard after CSU took a 14-3 lead at the half, outscoring CSU 15-6 in the second half. Unfortunately, three of CSU’s points came as time expired, as they kicked a 26-yard field goal to win the game 20-18. Here’s what was on my mind as I was leaving the press box:
Lobos had their chances: The Lobos had a 4th and 1 at the 4-yard line in the second quarter with a chance to make it a 7-7 game. That didn’t happen though. Instead, the Lobos were unable to convert and didn’t score on the drive that went 75 yards. On the next series for CSU, they had a 4th and 1 from the 3 and were able to convert, setting up a touchdown to take a 14-0 lead. At the end of the first half, the Lobos had another solid drive, going 65 yards before stalling and having to settle for a field goal. That left the Lobos looking at a 14-3 CSU lead at the half. On the first drive of the second half for CSU, the Lobos had an interception that was taken back due to a penalty. CSU didn’t score on the drive, but that could have been a game-changing play. The Lobos had a 3rd and 5 with just over a minute left and could have sealed the 18-17 win if they had converted on the play, but a dropped pass gave CSU the ball back with a chance to win the game. In a game that ends on a field goal, there are always a number of moments that could have changed the outcome. This one was no exception.
What went right: The Lobos were able to find big plays in the passing game, with Umeh having a 52-yard reception and Lilly with a 23-yard TD reception. The Lobos should be able to find those plays more consistently in the last six games of the regular season. Aside from his fumble on the second play of the game, Tyrone Owens was able to break off a few really nice runs The Lobos will need to find a way to find Owens more space throughout the remaining schedule. Marcus Hayes again showed how special of a player he can be for the Lobos when he broke for a 53-yard punt return that set up the TD by Delane Hart-Johnson. Hayes also provided great play in the secondary, as he had 8 tackles and a pass break up. Hart-Johnson also showed great ball skills with multiple big catches on 3rd downs and a huge TD catch that gave the Lobos the lead. Sheriron Jones has taken off with the quarterback position and has shown great growth since being thrown into the fire against Wisconsin, leaving me excited to see his continued growth during the rest of the season.
What went wrong: It didn’t take long for the first miscue to show up in the game, when Owens fumbled the ball on the second play of the game to set up a quick TD for CSU. It was a play that was circled as soon as it happened and came back to bite the Lobos. I thought it was the right call to go for it when it was 4th and 1 at the 4, as if the Lobos convert they probably score a TD and momentum would have been on their side after the bad start to the game. But, as we saw, it didn’t pan out. A huge difference in the game was 3rd and 4th down conversions. On the game, the Lobos were 3 for 11 on 3rd and 0 for 1 on 4th while CSU was 7 for 18 on 3rd and 1 for 1 on 4th down. The Lobos will need to find a way to convert these situations to win these close games.
Bowl Chances: With the loss today the Lobos fall to 3-3 and 1-1 in MW play. The Lobos will need to win 3 of the final 6 games to become bowl eligible. The remaining schedule for the Lobos is Fresno State, at Utah State, SDSU, at AFA, Boise State, and Wyoming. They will play 4 of the top 5 teams in the MW during these 6 games, so finding 3 wins is going to be difficult. This team has a chance to get there, but have to think they are well below 50% at this point. Would have been nice to have this one (and Liberty, while we’re at it.)
Up next: The Lobos will return to Albuquerque to host Fresno State (4-1, 1-0 they play Wyoming tonight) next Saturday, the Lobos will have to find ways to get their big playmakers the ball and limit the opportunities Fresno State gets. It should be a good day for Lobo sports, so make sure to get a $2 ticket to the Cherry vs. Silver Men’s Basketball event on October 19th (Friday) and get a ticket for the Football game.
Corina Carter is a Lobo!
UNM Women’s Basketball got better today, as high school senior guard Corina Carter gave Coach Bradbury and the staff a verbal commitment while on her official visit this weekend. Carter, from San Antonio, TX, is ranked as a Top-100 player in the 2019 class and will help the team from day one in a Lobo uniform at either guard spot. The news is great for Bradbury and staff as it gives them their first high-level true point in their first few years at UNM.
Carter joins Autumn Watts (2019 post) in the Lobos’ 2019 class, as the Lobos have four scholarships open for the class with Nunn, Lines, McClure, and Moore graduating after the 2018-2019 season. This is a start to a great recruiting class that could very well be locked in November. The Lobos have also had 2019 Forward Azaria Robinson (Alaska) and 2019 wing Adriana Avent (Sacramento, CA) visit UNM on official visits and I would consider the Lobos the favorite for both players. Talent is coming to UNM and it is an exciting time for Coach Bradury and Co. Don’t sleep on this program on the rise.
Doubleheader, For Soccer?!
Friday Night at the UNM Soccer Complex will give the term “Doubleheader” a new meaning, as both the Lobo Women’s and Men’s Soccer teams have their home openers. After a summer filled with emotion around the UNM Athletic Department (including Men’s Soccer), I can’t think of a better way to kick off the 2018-2019 season for Lobo Athletics. It should be a great night for soccer and should be two great matches. There may be other things that you are considering to do, but I believe that the UNM Soccer Complex is the place to be.
Here are 10 reasons why you should make it to the matches on Friday:
The Difficulty of Scheduling: An UNM Story
Scheduling for Men’s Basketball has changed a lot over the last 10 plus years. Multi-team events (MTEs) have become vogue and have helped some schools form their schedules. These exempt tournaments are good things if you end up in a good MTE with potential good wins on your schedule, but if you end up having a bad three games in four days, you could find it difficult to be in the at-large conversation. At least, if you aren’t in a Big 6 conference (Power 5 + Big East). MTEs have shifted how Big 6 Conference teams plan the rest of their non-conference schedules, as they lose the need to go on the road for home and home matchups against non-regional, non-Big 6 teams. This has hurt teams in the non-Big 6, because the home games against Big 6 schools are uncommon and really only come into fruition if you are in a great recruiting location (Las Vegas, San Diego, and similar locations) or if you have a local player that went to a Big 6 school and their coach wants their player to have a homecoming game of sorts.
One school that has been affected by scheduling in recent years is UNM, who has been especially affected this year when their MTE fell through with both the Alaskan Shootout ending and the planned event with Saint Mary’s changing scope. Beyond that, they want to schedule good teams for home games and want to have a couple of home and homes with Big 6 schools each year. But that has become more difficult as well.
Paul Weir’s Ten Degrees of Separation: The Road from NMSU to UNM
In the spring of 2017, Paul Weir was named as the new head coach at UNM, filling the open position that was vacant after the firing of Craig Neal. While it is easy to say that Coach Weir was a great hire after his excellent first season as the Head Coach at NMSU, there were a few things that needed to happen for Coach Weir to even be considered for the position. In order to do so, we have to go back to early 2016 and look at the dominos that had to fall for UNM to hire Paul Weir:
Mountain West Men’s Basketball Scheduling 2019
At noon today, the Mountain West announced the conference schedule for the 2018-2019 season. While there are some conferences where the schedule doesn’t matter too much because of the round-robin system they employ, the MW has a conference slate that influence who wins the conference, or even who gets first-round byes in the MW Conference Tournament. Last season, it is impossible to deny that they Lobos benefitted greatly from the schedule, as they didn’t have to travel to San Diego and didn’t have to face Nevada at home. While there could be a debate on how much impact it had on their final standing, but there was an impact. With the Conference at 11 teams and an 18 game schedule, each team will play eight teams twice (home and road) and two teams once (one home, one road). For conference standing’s sake, you want to have your bye games to be games that you could lose, and don’t want games taken away that you should win. Also within the schedule, there will be periods of rough patches, which we will look at where these could pop-up for each team.
Men’s Basketball: 2018-2019 Roster Breakdown
As we hit the first full offseason of the Paul Weir Era of Lobo Men’s Basketball, wee see that a lot has changed in the last 13+ months. Just about everything from last March, from the general perception of the program to the roster makeup. Going into next season, there are only two players on the roster, Seniors Dane Kuiper and Anthony Mathis, that were recruited and played for Craig Neal. Mathis, for his part, was almost gone too, but thankfully ended up staying and playing a huge part in the 2017-2018 season. It is absolutely incredible that Weir has been able to turn the roster over in such a short period of time and end up with a team expected to be at the top of the Mountain West.