It’s been a long season, but here we are: MWC Tournament week. No team has proven to be invincible in the conference this year, so this tournament feels as wide-open as it has ever been. Also, because no team seems to have a lock on an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament, we have 11 teams who feel like they need to win out this week in order to make it to the Big Dance. All of that should make for a fun week.
Lobo Baseball: DBU Recap
It was a tough weekend for the Lobos (6-4), as they got swept by Dallas Baptist in a three game series at Santa Ana Star Field. Friday, the Lobos lost a close 5-2 game with a little bit of drama, when the Lobos appeared to tie the game at 3-3 when Dalton Bowers was called out at home, because the umpire said he did not touch home plate while sliding past the plate. It looked like Bowers had touched the plate and if he had scored, there is no way of knowing how the game would have played out. Saturday and Sunday’s games will be ones the Lobos will want to forget and move past. In the game Saturday, the Lobos couldn’t get the DBU hitters out, letting DBU put up video game numbers with 33 runs scored in a 33-8 game. While that was a really bad game, these type of games tend to happen in college baseball and in my opinion, Sunday’s game was the loss that hurt the most. After five innings in the game on Sunday, the Lobos had an 11-2 lead with Colton Thomson cruising, but the last four innings was all DBU, as they outscored the Lobos 10-0 to beat the Lobos 12-11.
Women’s Basketball: MWC Tournament Preview
The Lobos (16-13, 9-9) are on a two-game winning streak as they enter the Mountain West Tournament as the 5 seed. They will take on the 4th seeded SJSU Spartans (13-16, 11-7) at 3:30 MT on Tuesday in the quarterfinals. The two teams have already played twice this season (here’s the preview for the first game, and here’s the preview for the second), with the Lobos winning the game in Albuquerque by 14 and the Spartans winning the game in San José by one. Since the last meeting, SJSU is 3-2 in their last five games, while the Lobos are 4-2 in their last six games. The key to this game will be if the Lobos will be able to control the tempo, they have been able to do this in each of the first two meetings.
Men’s Basketball at Nevada Recap
In a game that turned out to have very few implications for the MWC Tournament (aside from determining who the “home” team is the when these two face each other on Thursday), but did have a lot of implications for the Lobos’ morale, UNM came out with a much-needed win. They now turn their attention to the most important week of their season, and a chance to make it to the NCAA Tournament.
Men’s Basketball at Nevada Preview
There’s no way around it: the Lobos are on a major skid right now. They’ve lost four straight, managed to go from 2nd to 5th in the conference, and have seen a bunch of fans turn on them. The last time this happened – back in December, when they went on the worst trip to Hawaii ever – the Lobos banded together to pull out a nice win at home against Nevada. Coincidently, next on the schedule: Nevada. Let’s see if history can repeat itself.
Lobo Baseball vs. Dallas Baptist Series Preview
The Lobos (6-1) are on a 5-game win streak and are now ranked 24th in one of the many college baseball polls. If the Lobos are able to sweep Dallas Baptist (5-3), I think that they will start appearing in almost every college baseball poll. These are the sort of series that the team needs to win to have a good shot of making the NCAA Tournament, whether or not they win the conference championship. The Lobos will need great fan support to make it a great home field advantage this weekend.
Lobo Baseball vs. Wichita State Series Recap
The Lobos (6-1) opened their home schedule with a dominant three-game sweep of Wichita State, winning 17-7, 8-4, and 8-6. The Lobo bats were on fire and were able to make Wichita State go to their bullpen early, with only one Wichita State starter to make it through 4 innings. One key thing for the Lobos to be a truly great team this year is for the Lobo starting pitching to continue to pitch well, because the Lobo offense will probably be one of the best in the country.
Women’s Basketball vs. Nevada Preview
A lot has changed since the Lobos (15-13, 7-9) played the Nevada Wolf Pack (5-23, 4-13) back on December 30, which was the conference season opener for both teams. The Lobos won the first meeting 51-47 in a game where the Lobos struggled offensively, and were without the services of Jaisa Nunn (full game) and Alexa Chavez (first half injury). The Lobos need to continue the good offensive play that they showed in their last game, which helped them get a win at SDSU. If the Lobos are able to score at a good clip during this game and the MW Tournament next week, they could surprise a lot of teams.
Men’s Basketball vs. SDSU Recap
It wasn’t supposed to go like this. A month ago, the Lobos beat UNLV to cap off a four-game win streak, putting them at 7-2 in conference play, which was good for second place. It seemed like the only thing standing between them and a conference championship was San Diego State, who was undefeated in the conference at the time. But, despite the record, the Aztecs looked mortal, which gave us all hope and confidence in the idea that the Lobos could actually be the better team.
We know how that all ended. A controversial call likely cost the Lobos the game and made it unrealistic that they’d be able to catch up to SDSU. I’m not sure that the team has recovered since. Now, having received a thorough beat down from the Aztecs at home on Senior Night, the team is on a four-game losing streak and, more importantly, look completely defeated.
Women’s Basketball: At SDSU Game Preview
The Lobos (14-13, 7-9) head to San Diego to take on San Diego State (11-16, 6-10) in a key game for MW Tournament seeding. SDSU won the first meeting in Albuquerque 51-46, and the teams have gone in different directions since the meeting. On their end, SDSU started a five game winning streak that ended on Saturday at BSU. The Lobos, on the other hand, haven’t been able to find consistent play and haven’t been able to go on a long winning streak. The Lobos right now are in sixth place in the Conference while SDSU is in eighth. That means that if the Lobos win both of their remaining two games, they will be either the 5 seed or 6 seed, but SDSU could still overtake them if the Lobos don’t win out. Being the 6 seed means playing another game, but against a last-place Air Force squad, so that shouldn’t be a tough game.
Although this game is on the road, it’s worth remembering that playing at SDSU for women’s basketball is completely different than it is for men’s basketball. The arena won’t be full and there’s not nearly the same level of passion. That should hopefully mean that the Lobos won’t get rattled in this one. The Lobos offense needs to have a good game, which has seemed to happen only sporadically. However, if the Lobos get into the 60s, I like their chances to win. Khadijah Shumpert and Cherise Beynon, as usual, need to have great games for the Lobos to have a chance to win. But as we saw against FSU, other players need to provide production.
SDSU Aztecs:
The Aztecs are led by third-year head coach Stacie Terry and are coming off a 12-19 overall record last season, including 8-10 in conference play. While the men’s program at SDSU has become a conference power, the women’s team hasn’t been able to do the same. While the support for the men’s team is fantastic, the support for the women’s team is where the men’s support was before Coach Fisher built the program up. Coach Terry is in a position to build a good program, but it will take time. After a slow start to the season, the Aztecs have played well as of late to give them hope to make a run in the MW Tournament.
The Aztecs are led on the court by sophomore guard McKynzie Fort, who is averaging 14.7 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.3 assist and just over 2 steals per game. It is important for Cherise Beynon to control the impact that Fort has on this game. If Beynon is able to make the Aztecs play through someone else, the chances of the Lobos winning this game improve greatly. One weakness that Fort has had this season is turning the ball over, probably for many of the same reason that Elijah Brown ends up with a high number of turnovers for the Lobo men: she is expected to do it all for the Aztecs on offense. If the Lobos can force her into a lot of turnovers because she is trying to do too much, it could benefit the Lobos. The one problem that could arise from this is that it gives her an opportunity to have a huge game and lead the Aztecs to the win.
Team Stat Comparison:
- Points Per Game: Lobos 61.4; Aztecs 59.4
- Points Allowed Per Game: Lobos 58.2; Aztecs 63.3
- Field Goal Percentage: Lobos 37.1%; Aztecs 38.6%
- Three Point Percentage: Lobos 28.1%; Aztecs 30.1%
- Free Throw Percentage: Lobos 64.3%; Aztecs 65.4%
- Defensive Field Goal Percentage: Lobos 37.1%; Aztecs 41.9%
- Defensive Three Point Percentage: Lobos 31.2%; Aztecs 33.1%
- Rebounds Per Game: Lobos 39.7; Aztecs 33.7
- Assists Per Game: Lobos 13.3; Aztecs 11.5
- Turnovers Per Game: Lobos 15; Aztecs 15
- Turnovers Forced Per Game: Lobos 17.8; Aztecs 16.4
The biggest key to the game could be which team limits turnovers, and which team can create them.
Matchup to Watch:
Without question, the matchup to watch in this game is the battle between guards Cherise Beynon and McKynzie Fort. The key for Beynon in this matchup is to not allowing Fort to get any easy shots. If Beynon can force Fort in taking bad shots, the Lobos should be able to win this game. On offense, Beynon needs to be efficient by taking good shots and making good decisions that lead to easy shots for her teammates.
Picks:
I went 5-0 on my picks Saturday to improve to 63-21. Here are my picks for Tuesday’s games:
UNM at SDSU
USU vs. AFA
BSU at Nevada
CSU vs. FSU
SJSU vs. Wyo
Conference Standings
- CSU 16-0
- FSU 14-2
- BSU 10-6
- SJSU 10-6
- UNLV 8-9
- UNM 7-9
- USU 7-9
- SDSU 6-10
- WYO 6-11
- Nevada 4-12
- AFA 1-15
Prediction:
This is a hard game to predict, as I think the Lobos are a better team, but they are inconsistent at times. Plus, SDSU won the first meeting in Albuquerque in a low scoring game, so they should come into the game with a lot of confidence. Both teams have struggled scoring this season, so this game could be played in the 40s. That also means that if one team is able to shoot well, it will end up being a blowout. I put the odds of the Lobos winning this game at 54% with the finals score being 55-52, Lobos.
Game Info:
Who: New Mexico (14-13, 7-9) vs. SDSU (11-16, 6-10)
Where: Viejas Arena, San Diego, California
When: Tuesday March 1st, 7:30 PM MT
Radio: 610 AM
Stream: Campus Insiders