We are now in the fourth week of Mountain West women’s basketball season, with teams having played either five or six games entering play Wednesday night. This marks about a third of the season for the teams and we are starting to be able to see how the conference will shake out. There is still plenty of time for teams to move up in the standings, as with the way teams’ schedules are and just the nature of the sport, it is possible to see multiple teams to go on long winning streaks. The Lobos are in a tough spot being 2-3, but with a 1-1 record at home and 1-2 record on the road they still have a chance to finish in the top part of the conference. One thing that needs to happen for the Lobos to have a chance to win the regular season crown is they need to get their offense going, or this season will not go as well as we had hoped.
Here are some thoughts about how the Mountain West is playing out so far.
Mountain West Favorite: CSU
It is no surprise who the favorite is to win the Mountain West regular season title. After all, they were the favorite in the preseason and in our conference reset right before MW play started. CSU has been the class of the Mountain West for the last handful of years and is the only hope for the Mountain West to be a two bid league, as they are the only ones who have a shot at an at-large berth if they don’t win the conference tournament. If CSU does go 18-0 in Mountain West play, it would be hard for the NCAA Selection Committee to leave out a team with a 30-2 record. Of course, I would be surprised if CSU didn’t win the regular season and they will be the heavy favorite to win the conference tournament.
Mountain West Dark Horse: FSU
After finishing their non-conference schedule 4-7, there were a lot of questions about how FSU was going to do in league play. Well, at this point FSU is playing the second best ball in the Mountain West, behind CSU, and already have three road wins with wins at New Mexico, Nevada and SJSU. Starting 3-0 on the road will allow FSU to apply pressure on CSU for the conference title. Since the two teams only play each other once at CSU, it will be interesting to see if that game could decide the title. FSU should be the favorite in pretty much every game they play except for that CSU game, so because of this they are my Dark Horse to win the Mountain West.
Conference Tiers:
When we did our conference preview, we had four tiers. However, with the great start by FSU, I see five different tiers in the conference right now.
- CSU
- FSU
- UNM, SJSU, WYO, BSU, UNLV and Utah State
- SDSU
- Nevada and AFA
Three teams that are clear where they stand in the conference right now are CSU, Nevada and AFA. The other eight teams, because of their relative parity, will see a lot of movement in the standings, so it will be interesting to see where all of the teams wind up in a couple of months.
Conference Standings:
- CSU 5-0
- FSU 5-0
- SJSU 4-2
- BSU 3-2
- WYO 3-3
- USU 3-3
- UNM 2-3
- UNLV 2-3
- SDSU 1-4
- Nevada 1-4
- AFA 0-5
Wednesday’s Picks:
After a 3-2 Saturday, I am now 18-11 on my picks for the season. For the second time already this conference season, the Lobos have a bye, meaning that there’s not a preview to write. So, here are my picks for Wednesday’s Mountain West action:
CSU vs AFA
WYO at Nevada
BSU at SJSU
FSU vs SDSU
UNLV vs USU
I would expect a couple of blowouts tonight, but the BSU/SJSU, FSU/SDSU, and UNLV/USU should be three good matchups.