Women’s Basketball at UNLV Preview

by Zach

The Lobos (11-8, 4-4) are back in action Wednesday night, when they head to Las Vegas, for a rematch with UNLV (12-8, 5-4) at Cox Pavilion. The Lobos won the first meeting at WisePies Arena AKA The PIT 67-53, a game that saw four of the Lobo starters score in double figures, highlighted by Khadijah Shumpert’s 18 points and 9 rebounds. The first meeting was a back and forth game for the first three quarters, but the Lobos used a 20-10 fourth quarter to win by 14 points. It is important for the Lobos to take care of the ball again in this game, and find contributions from multiple players. The Lobos need to find a comfort level with each other and play for each other, especially after their disappointing home loss against BSU.

The Lobos need to find what kind of team they are going to be this year, and soon, or we will be asking what happened to this team. It is easy to tell that the Lobos lone hope to make the NCAA Tournament is to win the MW Tournament, but if they aren’t playing well going into the tournament like they were last year, it is hard to see them having a good chance to win the tournament. There is still time for the Lobos to work things out, and they have the talent to do so, but it needs to happen soon. Perhaps this game can be the start for this season’s turn-around.

UNLV Rebels:

The Rebels are led by eighth-year head coach Kathy Oliver, whose tenure has been a mixed bag of results and who hasn’t seen a winning season in a little while. However, the Rebels are having a good season so far, currently sitting at 12-6 overall and 5-4 in MW play. They have played well as of late, winning 4 of their last 5 games, so they’re certainly looking to keep that solid play going. UNLV is a very interesting team, as they have three players who are averaging double figures, but are shooting only 35% from the floor as a team. The top players for the Rebels are Brooke Johnson, Dakota Gonzalez and Nikki Wheatley. Johnson, who is averaging 12.7 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 2.6 steals per game, is probably the player the Lobos will have to focus on stopping if they want to get the road win. Dakota Gonzalez leads the Rebels in scoring at 13.8 points, but is only shooting 31.1% from the field, so the Lobos need to limit her good looks in the game to make sure that she doesn’t have a good shooting game. Wheatley is scoring 10.8 points, grabbing 6.7 rebounds, and dishing out 2.5 assists per game, so it will be important for the Lobos to limit Wheatley’s impact on the game.

Team Stat Comparison:

  • Points Per Game: Lobos 63.9; Rebels 61.3
  • Points Allowed Per Game: Lobos 59.9; Rebels 57.2
  • Field Goal Percentage: Lobos 38.3%; Rebels 35%
  • Three Point Percentage: Lobos 29.3%; Rebels 28.2%
  • Free Throw Percentage: Lobos 64.9%; Rebels 64.5%
  • Defensive Field Goal Percentage: Lobos 36.9%; Rebels 36.4%
  • Defensive Three Point Percentage: Lobos 30.8%; Rebels 30.9%
  • Rebounds Per Game: Lobos 40.6; Rebels 45.2
  • Assists Per Game: Lobos 13.7; Rebels 10.1
  • Turnovers Per Game: Lobos 15.3; Rebels 16.9
  • Turnovers Forced Per Game: Lobos 17.1; Rebels 18.3

The key team stat to look at for in this game is to see which team will be able to shoot better than their sub-40% field goal percentage. Both teams have struggled on offense, so if one team is able to hit shots, they have a chance to run away with this game.

Matchup to Watch:

I will be watching the matchup of Khadijah Shumpert against the frontline of the Rebels. It will be very important for Shumpert to have a great game for the Lobos and to stay out of foul trouble, which has been an issue at times. We have seen that the Lobos play well as a team when Shumpert is playing great and staying out of foul trouble, but her absence can lead to some struggles. If Shumpert is able to limit her fouls to where she is able to play 30+ minutes, it will give the Lobos are great chance to win this game.

Picks:

I went 4-1 in my picks Saturday to improve to 35-14, only getting the UNM home game wrong. Here are my picks for Wednesday’s Nights action:

UNM at UNLV

WYO vs. AFA

BSU at USU

CSU vs. SDSU

FSU vs. SJSU

Conference Standings

  • CSU 8-0
  • FSU 8-0
  • BSU 7-2
  • UNLV 5-4
  • USU 5-4
  • UNM 4-4
  • SJSU 5-5
  • Nevada 3-6
  • WYO 3-7
  • SDSU 1-8
  • AFA 0-9

Prediction:

The Lobos won the first meeting this year 67-54, but I don’t know how much that really tells us how these two teams match up. I think that this game will see the score end up in the 50s and could be a true defensive game. That also means that it could be one where a team can run away if they are able to play great offense. I put the odds of the Lobos winning this game at 52% with the final score being 61-57.

Game Info:

Who: New Mexico (11-8, 4-5) at UNLV (12-6, 5-4)

Where: Cox Pavilion, Las Vegas, Nevada

When: Wednesday February 3rd, 8 PM MT

Radio: 610 AM

Stream: Campus Insiders