It’s time for the first real game for the UNM men’s basketball team, as they take on the Idaho State Bengals in a Friday night matchup. After disappointing ends to the last couple of seasons, this looks like it might be a Lobo team that is worth getting excited about, so hopefully they’ll put on a strong performance to make people take notice.
A Little About Idaho State
What they’ve done so far:
Not much, given that this is their first game of the season as well. They did play an exhibition game against Southern Virginia last week where they won 89-55. Just as there’s not a lot to take out of the Lobos’ two exhibition games, I don’t think there’s much to read into this one.
So, what’s probably more informative is how the Bengals did last season. Overall, they went 16-15, including an 11-7 mark in the Big Sky. That was a huge improvement over their 2014-15 campaign, where they only won 7 games, with two of those victories coming against non-D1 opponents. Given that they return several of their key players, they’re expectations have gone up a little this year, with the team picked 5th in the conference preseason poll, compared to dead last just a year ago.
Coach:
Bill Evans, who has gone 40-80 in his four years with the Bengals and was named Big Sky Coach of the Year last season. Previous to his time at ISU, Evans coached Southern Utah University for 16 seasons (1991-2007), where he compiled a 208-223 record and went to the NCAA Tournament one time.
Probable Starters:
#3 Ethan Telfair (6’0” Guard, Senior): If the last name looks familiar, it’s because his older brother happens to be Sebastian, the point guard who bounced around the NBA for about a decade. Ethan is now in his second season with the Bengals, having transferred over from a junior college last year. He immediately became the best player on the team, leading the Bengals in points, assists, and steals and being especially effective from deep and from the free throw line. That performance earned him the newcomer of the year award in the conference and convinced voters to select him to the preseason all-Big Sky team.
#0 Hayes Garrity (6’2” Guard, Junior): Garrity is a grad transfer from Utah Valley, who the Bengals play next, awkwardly enough. Because of a redshirt year, a medical redshirt year, and two years spent on an LDS mission, he actually started playing college ball in 2010, which feels like forever ago. Also because of those things, he’s only actually played one season of D1 ball, back in 2013-14. That makes it really difficult to figure out what to expect from him in this game, but based on their exhibition game, it looks like he can shoot threes fairly well, as he went 2-3 in that one.
#1 Geno Luzcando (6’3” Guard, Junior): Luzcando is a returning starter from last season who was second on the team in scoring and steals. He shot well from all over the court, which led to his team-high 60.2 true shooting % and his 14.4 points per game. He and Telfair combine for a pretty potent backcourt for the Bengals, one that has the potential to drop a combined 40-50 points on any given night.
#5 Robert Jones (6’8” Forward, Junior): Jones is a junior college transfer who is in his first season with ISU. While he is effectively playing power forward for the Bengals, he really profiles as more of a wing.
#13 Novak Topalovic (7’0” Center, Sophomore): A Serbian giant, Topalovic is expected to be the main presence for the Bengals in the low post. He didn’t get a ton of playing time last season, so it’s unclear how well he’ll do with expanded minutes. He’s a big guy, though, and it seems like he can rebound pretty well on the defensive end, so he could end up providing some good production for the Bengals. He does foul a little too much, which could be an issue for them, as they’re pretty thin down low.
Some Relevant Stats
With this being the first game, it doesn’t make a ton of sense comparing the team’s stats so far this season, but we can look at how ISU played last year to give us an idea of what they might do against the Lobos. The first thing that sticks out is that they like to play fast. Their average possession length was only 16.1 seconds long, which was the 53rd shortest in the country. That means that they like to get up and down the court and take shots early in the shot clock. The Lobos are pretty similar in that regard, which means that this could end up being a high-scoring game simply because there will be a bunch of possessions.
The Bengals biggest strength was their free throw shooting, as Telfair and Luzcando both took a bunch of free throws and made them at a high clip. They also were a fairly decent three point shooting team, thanks to Telfair and bench-player Gary Chivichyan. Where they struggled, however, was on defense, particularly inside the arc. Teams shot 52.2% against them from two-point range, which was one of the higher rates in the country. With their lack of size down low, my guess is that they’ll struggle with that again.
Scattered Thoughts
- I don’t know about you, but I’m feeling pretty optimistic about this season. With a lot of talent returning, and maturing, I think that we’ll see a much-improved Lobo team from last year. And last year, they were pretty good for a good chunk of the season. It may seem hard to remember, given the way the season ended and some of the drama that went on last year, but halfway through conference play, they were 7-2 in conference play and looking like they had a good shot to win 20 games overall. And that team was pretty young and had some noticeable flaws. This year, they’re more experienced and they look like they’ve shored up some of their weaknesses, which makes me think that they could have a really memorable year. Nothing’s given, of course, but I’m excited to see what they could end up doing.
- Based on this matchup, I think that we’ll see both Tim Williams and Connor MacDougall have big games in this one. I’m not sure that the Bengals have anyone who can guard either of those guys, especially if we see both of them on the court at the same time.
- That said, the focus of this game is going to be in the backcourt, with Elijah Brown taking on Ethan Telfair, we will get to see two prolific scorers face off against each other. This feels like the sort of matchup that could get EB fired up, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes off in his first game back.
Prediction
The last time these two teams played together, both teams were having down years, so the Lobos were still able to handle that game with a 79-55 win. This year, I don’t think that either team is expected to have a down year, but a down year for the Lobos would be a great year for the Bengals. I think that this will be closer than it was a couple of years ago, but the Lobos should win fairly handily, 85-72.
Game Info
Who: New Mexico Lobos (0-0) vs. Idaho State (0-0)
When: Friday, November 11, 2016 at 8:05pm MT
Where: Albuquerque, NM
Watch: Root Sports
Listen: 770 KKOB