The Lobos (14-13, 7-9) head to San Diego to take on San Diego State (11-16, 6-10) in a key game for MW Tournament seeding. SDSU won the first meeting in Albuquerque 51-46, and the teams have gone in different directions since the meeting. On their end, SDSU started a five game winning streak that ended on Saturday at BSU. The Lobos, on the other hand, haven’t been able to find consistent play and haven’t been able to go on a long winning streak. The Lobos right now are in sixth place in the Conference while SDSU is in eighth. That means that if the Lobos win both of their remaining two games, they will be either the 5 seed or 6 seed, but SDSU could still overtake them if the Lobos don’t win out. Being the 6 seed means playing another game, but against a last-place Air Force squad, so that shouldn’t be a tough game.
Although this game is on the road, it’s worth remembering that playing at SDSU for women’s basketball is completely different than it is for men’s basketball. The arena won’t be full and there’s not nearly the same level of passion. That should hopefully mean that the Lobos won’t get rattled in this one. The Lobos offense needs to have a good game, which has seemed to happen only sporadically. However, if the Lobos get into the 60s, I like their chances to win. Khadijah Shumpert and Cherise Beynon, as usual, need to have great games for the Lobos to have a chance to win. But as we saw against FSU, other players need to provide production.
SDSU Aztecs:
The Aztecs are led by third-year head coach Stacie Terry and are coming off a 12-19 overall record last season, including 8-10 in conference play. While the men’s program at SDSU has become a conference power, the women’s team hasn’t been able to do the same. While the support for the men’s team is fantastic, the support for the women’s team is where the men’s support was before Coach Fisher built the program up. Coach Terry is in a position to build a good program, but it will take time. After a slow start to the season, the Aztecs have played well as of late to give them hope to make a run in the MW Tournament.
The Aztecs are led on the court by sophomore guard McKynzie Fort, who is averaging 14.7 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.3 assist and just over 2 steals per game. It is important for Cherise Beynon to control the impact that Fort has on this game. If Beynon is able to make the Aztecs play through someone else, the chances of the Lobos winning this game improve greatly. One weakness that Fort has had this season is turning the ball over, probably for many of the same reason that Elijah Brown ends up with a high number of turnovers for the Lobo men: she is expected to do it all for the Aztecs on offense. If the Lobos can force her into a lot of turnovers because she is trying to do too much, it could benefit the Lobos. The one problem that could arise from this is that it gives her an opportunity to have a huge game and lead the Aztecs to the win.
Team Stat Comparison:
- Points Per Game: Lobos 61.4; Aztecs 59.4
- Points Allowed Per Game: Lobos 58.2; Aztecs 63.3
- Field Goal Percentage: Lobos 37.1%; Aztecs 38.6%
- Three Point Percentage: Lobos 28.1%; Aztecs 30.1%
- Free Throw Percentage: Lobos 64.3%; Aztecs 65.4%
- Defensive Field Goal Percentage: Lobos 37.1%; Aztecs 41.9%
- Defensive Three Point Percentage: Lobos 31.2%; Aztecs 33.1%
- Rebounds Per Game: Lobos 39.7; Aztecs 33.7
- Assists Per Game: Lobos 13.3; Aztecs 11.5
- Turnovers Per Game: Lobos 15; Aztecs 15
- Turnovers Forced Per Game: Lobos 17.8; Aztecs 16.4
The biggest key to the game could be which team limits turnovers, and which team can create them.
Matchup to Watch:
Without question, the matchup to watch in this game is the battle between guards Cherise Beynon and McKynzie Fort. The key for Beynon in this matchup is to not allowing Fort to get any easy shots. If Beynon can force Fort in taking bad shots, the Lobos should be able to win this game. On offense, Beynon needs to be efficient by taking good shots and making good decisions that lead to easy shots for her teammates.
Picks:
I went 5-0 on my picks Saturday to improve to 63-21. Here are my picks for Tuesday’s games:
UNM at SDSU
USU vs. AFA
BSU at Nevada
CSU vs. FSU
SJSU vs. Wyo
Conference Standings
- CSU 16-0
- FSU 14-2
- BSU 10-6
- SJSU 10-6
- UNLV 8-9
- UNM 7-9
- USU 7-9
- SDSU 6-10
- WYO 6-11
- Nevada 4-12
- AFA 1-15
Prediction:
This is a hard game to predict, as I think the Lobos are a better team, but they are inconsistent at times. Plus, SDSU won the first meeting in Albuquerque in a low scoring game, so they should come into the game with a lot of confidence. Both teams have struggled scoring this season, so this game could be played in the 40s. That also means that if one team is able to shoot well, it will end up being a blowout. I put the odds of the Lobos winning this game at 54% with the finals score being 55-52, Lobos.
Game Info:
Who: New Mexico (14-13, 7-9) vs. SDSU (11-16, 6-10)
Where: Viejas Arena, San Diego, California
When: Tuesday March 1st, 7:30 PM MT
Radio: 610 AM
Stream: Campus Insiders