We’re alive! And so is Lobo Basketball! It’s been a crazy summer so far for the boys in cherry and silver, so we’re going to look at a few of the things going on right now.
Lobo Baseball: 2017 Conference Tournament Preview
This weekend the University of New Mexico will host the Mountain West Conference Baseball Tournament after the Lobos (29-25, 19-9-1) won their finale against Nevada, and a loss by SDSU won the Regular Season Title for the Lobos, and the right to host the Tournament. The Lobos who won the Tournament last year (also as host), will look to make it two years in a row as host and winner of the Tournament. The Lobos have struggled down the stretch going 3-6 in the final three series. The good and bad thing for all four of the teams competing in the Tournament, the only way to make the NCAA Tournament is to win the MW auto-bid. It should be a great tournament this weekend with many twist and turns.
Catching up with Lobo Baseball and (AFA Series Predictions)
We are heading down the home stretch for the conference regular season with the first-place Lobos (26-19-1, 16-3-1), who are looking to lock up the MW Regular Season Championship and the honor to host the conference tournament in a couple of weeks. The Lobos have nine regular season games left, as they will host Air Force this weekend, will travel to Fresno State next weekend, and close out the season hosting Nevada. The Lobos are four games up in the loss column on San Diego State, but due to the tie and rain out at San Jose State, the Lobos and Aztecs will not have any tie breakers that could come into play, since the conference champion will be decided by win percentage. This week, we will look at the big picture for the Lobos going into the last month of the season and have a quick look at the series this weekend against Air Force.
Safe or In Danger?
The Lobos are in a very interesting spot when it comes to the possibility of making the NCAA Tournament this season. In both D1Baseball’s and Baseball America’s brackets this weekend, the Lobos were penciled in as a 3 seed (33-48 ranked teams), which means the Lobos should have some breathing room. The problem for the Lobos is that their nine remaining games are against teams ranked below 150 in the RPI (AFA 216, FSU 180, and Nevada 227). This means the Lobos will most likely see their strong RPI of 38 drop to somewhere in the 40s or 50s, which could put their at-large hopes in question. This brings up some question on how much influence RPI should have in the selection process, even more so with baseball than basketball. Here are some reason the Lobos should have their spot locked in the tournament without having to win the MW Tournament (this of course is barring a late season collapse).
- The Lobos put together one of the most difficult schedules a mid-major team can realistically schedule, and this is rewarded with the number 1 non-conference schedule. While their record isn’t the “normal standard” for a mid-major team to make the field, the Lobos should be viewed with the scope of doing everything they could to put together an incredible schedule.
- It isn’t the Lobos fault that the rest of the conference, except SDSU to some extent, didn’t play tough schedules and in turn have terrible RPI’s and strength of schedule. The rest of the conference needs to start taking the approach of the Lobos in scheduling big games, as the one team that has an excuse for this is AFA.
- The Lobos have quality wins and could end up winning a conference with fewer than 5 losses. No matter what conference you play in, if you can go 10 series with fewer than 5 losses, you should be in the field.
In the end, I hope that the Lobos don’t have to plead their case in front of the selection committee, simply because they won the conference tournament and earned the auto-bid. This Lobo team has a chance to make noise in a regional and it would be a huge letdown if they weren’t given a chance to compete in the NCAA Tournament.
All AmeriMang:
The growth of sophomore outfielder and Las Alamos native Jared Mang has been a blast to watch this season. Last season, Mang showed tons of promise and signs of what could become in the future, and the future is now. After a slow start, Mang has positioned himself to be in the conversation for an All-American team. There are a few honors that Mang could receive this year, including Conference Player of the Year and All-American.
Conference Stats:
- Batting Average: .488
- On Base Percentage: .552
- Slugging Percentage: .750
- Hits: 41
- Runs: 34
- Runs Batted In: 32
- Doubles: 8
- Home Runs: 4
Overall Stats:
- Batting Average: .386
- On Base Percentage: .448
- Slugging Percentage: .603
- Hits: 73
- Runs: 54
- Runs Batted In: 52
- Doubles: 13
- Home Runs: 8
This season is just the beginning for Mang, as he has a chance to be on the USA College Team this summer and could find himself as the most scouted UNM player since DJ Peterson in 2013. Enjoy watching Mang while you can, because you will probably only have one more full year of watching him play.
Conference Standings:
| Conference Record | Remaining Games | |
| UNM | 16-3-1 | 9 (AFA, @FSU, Nevada) |
| SDSU | 14-7 | 9 (@SJSU, @AFA, FSU) |
| FSU | 11-10 | 9 (@UNLV, UNM, @SDSU) |
| AFA | 10-13 | 6 (@UNM, SDSU) |
| SJSU | 8-14-1 | 6 (SDSU, @UNLV) |
| Nevada | 9-14 | 6 (UNLV, @UNM) |
| UNLV | 7-14 | 9 (FSU, @Nevada, SJSU) |
- The Conference Regular Season Champion will host the four-team Conference Tournament this season.
- The Lobos have clinched a spot in the tournament, and could clinch the title before the last weekend of the season. SDSU is likely going to be a top 2 seed in the tournament, but need the Lobos to struggle to have a legit shot of hosting the tournament.
- I believe that 14 wins from both FSU and AFA would clinch a bid to the Tournament, I would put the odds of FSU making the tournament at 85%, and AFA odds of making the Tournament at a much lower 60%.
- The teams to watch in the bottom three are last-place UNLV, as they have 9 remaining games which gives them more opportunities for wins. If they can manage to go 7-2 or possibly 6-3, they could find themselves in the 4 seed.
Series Prediction:
In the first series between these two teams in early March, the Lobos swept the series with 19-5, 24-16, and 16-7 wins. The Lobos have the advantage on the mound and this should be even more evident in a less hitter friendly environment at Santa Ana Field (yes, that was weird to type). The Lobos should be able to take advantage of the Falcons’ pitching again, and I expect the Lobos best hitters to have huge weekends. I give the Lobos a 30% chance of a sweep, 45% chance of a 2-1 series win, a 20% chance of winning 1 of 3, and a 5% chance of getting swept. I have the Lobos sweeping the series with relative ease. It should be a great weekend for Lobo Baseball and there should be a great turnout.
Series Info:
Who: New Mexico Lobos (26-19-1, 16-3-1) vs. Air Force Academy Falcons (21-20, 10-13)
When: Friday May 5th 6:30 PM, Saturday May 6th 2 PM, Sunday May 7th 1 PM
Where: Santa Ana Star Field, Albuquerque, New Mexico
Radio: ESPN 101.7 The TEAM
Stream: The MW Network.
What We’ve Learned from Paul Weir’s First Week (and a Half)
Last week, word started trickling out that rather than any of the other names that Lobo fans had been hearing and debating about, NMSU’s Paul Weir would be the next head coach for men’s basketball. It’s fair to say that choice was shocking, as not only was he a legitimate mystery candidate, he’s been an Aggie for 10 years. However, once the initial shock wore off, I’ve certainly become excited about the Paul Weir era. He’s still a bit of an unknown, but I think that we’ve learned some things so far in his brief tenure to give us hope.
Early Thoughts on Craig Neal’s Firing
Four years ago tomorrow, Craig Neal was hired as the head coach for the New Mexico Lobos. In general, it was a well-regarded hire. Neal was thought of as somewhat of an offensive genius, a man who just needed a shot at a head-coaching job, and someone who knew and loved the program already. Beyond that, fans were wanting him to maintain the program that he had built with Steve Alford, especially with a very good returning team that, the thought was, only he could keep together. Because of that, it is somewhat ironic that Neal was let go in large part because he couldn’t keep his team together anymore.
Lobo Baseball Series 7 Preview: Fresno St.
The Lobos (16-9, 9-0) return home after finishing off UNLV last weekend for their third straight conference series sweep and a midweek win at NMSU on Tuesday. After dropping six straight games a couple of weeks ago the Lobos have rebounded with a five-game win streak. The pitching has been great for the Lobos for all but two games this season (AFA 24-16 win, OSU 13-0 loss), and it will need to continue to be great this week, as they face a very talented Fresno State (14-0, 5-4) squad that won the MW Regular Season Championship last season. With a series win this weekend, the Lobos could create huge separation between them and FSU just 12 games into a 30-game conference schedule. This is a huge series for both teams this weekend, but you could make the case that it is a bigger series for FSU, after dropping 2 of 3 at home last weekend against SDSU. With another series loss this weekend, FSU’s title hopes will be very slim just 12 games in. This series should be a great matchup between two of the most talented teams in the conference, and the west coast in general.
Lobo Baseball Series 6 Preview: UNLV
The Lobos (12-9, 6-0) return to conference play after going 1-6 over the week and a half of non-conference games. While the Lobos did struggle during a six-game losing streak, five of those games were against Oklahoma State (2 midweek games) and Cal State Fullerton (3 games), both of whom are nationally-ranked. The Lobos did have chances in just about every game to come out with the win, including Saturday’s game against Fullerton, where they had a 4-1 lead at one point. The interesting thing about the struggles during this seven-game stretch was that the issues stemmed from the offense and not the pitching. This is good news for the Lobos as they get back into conference play and face other nationally-ranked teams later in the season, so hopefully their bats can come around for good by then. It was great to see the offense click on Wednesday against Grand Canyon, when they scored 22 runs.
MW Men’s Basketball Tourney: Championship Preview
After a wild conference season, with lots of upsets, a lot of parity, and no overwhelming favorite, here we are: the championship game between the top two seeds, Nevada and Colorado St. Although it felt like there could end up being plenty of chaos in this tournament, we’ve actually ended up with only two upsets: #10 Air Force beating #7 Wyoming and #6 SDSU beating #3 Boise State. In fact, the Aztecs were even favored in that one. Regardless, we’ll be crowning a new conference champion today, so it will be a big day for one of these programs.
Lobo Baseball Series 4 Preview: San Jose State
The Lobos (8-3, 3-0) are riding high, as they are on a four-game winning streak and look to extend it this weekend against the visiting San Jose State Spartans (6-5, 2-1). The Lobos scored a ton of runs and got good pitching for most of the past week, aside from the first 3 innings last Saturday. The Lobos have a chance to create separation early in the conference season, which could pay huge dividends as the season goes along and allow them to host the conference tournament for the second straight year. Look for the Lobo pitching staff to have a great weekend against the struggling offense of the Spartans, while the Lobo bats will be the biggest test this Spartans’ pitching staff has faced this season. It should be a good weekend for the Lobos at Santa Ana Star Field.
MW Men’s Basketball Tourney: Semifinals Preview
If you’re reading this and you’re a Lobo fan, bless you. That was a tough, and somewhat unexpected way to watch the Lobos go out and (likely) end their season. We’ll have more to say about it when some of the dust settles, but for now, there are still a few games left to decide the MW Tournament Champion. Let’s check out the matchups:
Game 8: #1 Nevada vs. #4 Fresno State
As expected, the Wolf Pack took care of Utah State with relative ease, claiming an 83-69 victory after leading the entire game. They got solid games from their big three, with Caroline putting up a 22-8, Oliver a 19-11, and Marshall chipping in 14 points. Utah State’s Jalen Moore went off for 27 points and Kobe McEwen added 17 of his own, but they didn’t get much help from elsewhere.
Fresno was able to advance after taking out the Lobos, 65-60. After the Lobos jumped out to an early double-digit lead, the Bulldogs were able to come back and keep the score close for the majority of the game. They were able to create enough separation at the end with a late run to hold off the Lobos, mostly thanks to some timely plays by the Taylors, Deshon and Jahmel. The Lobos didn’t shoot particularly well, which became a theme towards the end of the season, but most surprisingly was their performance at the free throw line, where they went just 12-22. Just another missed opportunity in a season full of them.
Fresno and Nevada faced each other twice this season and in both instances, the Bulldogs came out on top. However, they were both close games, with the game in Fresno going down to the wire, 77-76, while the game in Reno ended up 81-76. One has to think that this game will be close too.
Stat Comparison
(To read the plots, the further away from the center, the better the team is at each stat. That is, for each stat, the best team will have a value on the outside of the radar plot while the worst team will have a value on the very inside of the plot. For an explanation of the stats, click here. All stats taken from kenpom.com)
Key Players
Nevada: Marcus Marshall (SR Guard, 19.7 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 3.6 apg); Cameron Oliver (SO Forward, 15.7 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 1.9 apg); Jordan Caroline (SO Forward, 14.5 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 2.0 apg)
Fresno State: Jamel Taylor (JR Guard, 11.1 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.9 apg); Jaron Hopkins (JR Guard, 13.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 3.5 apg); Deshon Taylor (SO Guard, 11.9 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.1 apg)
Prediction
On one hand, Fresno State beat Nevada twice already this season, so it’s clear that they have the ability to take out the top seed. However, at this point I feel like we’re on a collision course to a Nevada-CSU rematch, so I’ll take Nevada in this one, 77-72. In our bracket challenge, only 38.9% of our respondents picked Nevada to win this game, but that’s because the other 61.1% picked the Lobos. 🙁
Game Info
Who: #1 Nevada (26-6, 15-4) vs. #4 Fresno St. (20-11, 12-7)
When: Friday, March 10, 2017 at 8pm MT
Watch: CBS Sports Network
Game 9: #2 Colorado State vs. #6 San Diego State
Colorado State did exactly what they should have done to the 10 seed in the conference: they dominated them. The conference player of the year, Gian Clavell, dropped 30 on the poor Falcons, including a 6-11 performance behind the arc. Three other Rams ended up in double figures, while the Falcons only ended up with two players scoring more than 6.
San Diego State recovered from a poor first-round performance to beat down Boise State 87-68 behind 22 points and 10 rebounds by Malik Pope (who may or may not have reinjured the knee that kept him out of 9 games earlier this season). Rather than the types of games they’ve played recently that can only be generously called “basketball”, the Aztecs put together a great offensive performance, including making 9 of 14 threes, while playing solid enough defense to hold off the Broncos. They’re now exactly where they figured to be going into the season, although they’d probably prefer you to forget the route they took to get there.
These two teams faced each other twice, with the Rams pulling out a one-point win each time. If that trend holds, fans will be rewarded for staying up all night to watch this one.
Stat Comparison
Key Players
Colorado St.: Gian Clavell (SR Guard, 15.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 2.0 apg); Emmanuel Omogbo (SR Forward, 12.5 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 2.6 apg); Printiss Nixon (SO Guard, 11.8 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.5 apg)
San Diego St.: Trey Kell (JR Guard, 13.2 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.8 apg); Dakarai Allen (SR Guard, 8.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.4 apg); Jeremy Hemsley (SO Guard, 13.2 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 2.1 apg)
Prediction
These teams are probably more evenly-matched than either fan base would like to admit, but given how their last two games against each other were each decided by one point, it would be hard to argue against. Before the tourney started, I picked CSU to win this game, so I’ll stick with this choice, although I expect it to be close. I’ll pick the Rams to win 69-66. The Lobo fans in our bracket challenge all picked one of these two teams to move on to the finals, with 83.3% picking CSU and 16.7% picking the Aztecs.
Game Info
Who: #2 Colorado St. (22-10, 14-5) vs. #6 San Diego St. (19-13, 11-9)
When: Friday, March 9, 2017 at 10:30pm MT
Watch: CBS Sports Network